Permutations: What does each team need to reach the EURO 2025 quarter finals

It is time for EURO 2025 permutations. The Halfway Line is here to take you through exactly what your team needs to make the quarter finals of UEFA EURO 2025.

For every child that writes to Santa asking for presents under the Christmas tree, there is a women’s football fan praying for a permutations piece every major tournament. And I, a humble servant of the women’s football fan can only oblige. So with one set of fixtures in the group stage remaining here is what every team needs to make the quarter final.

GROUP A: Switzerland & Finland face off

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Norway are already through to the quarter finals and Iceland are already eliminated. Given Norway’s positive head to head record against both the opponents who could catch them in the group they have confirmed themselves in first place. Conversely Iceland are confirmed as bottom of group a for the same reason that Norway are locked in at the top, their inferior head to head record against those who can falter to their level.

The delectable drama comes when Switzerland and Finland meet in the fight for a place in the quarter finals. If either side win they will be in the quarter finals but Switzerland, owing to their superior goal difference will make the quarters with a draw. Likely awaiting the winner in the quarter finals? Well, let’s not talk about that just yet.

What does each team need in Group A?

Norway: Through already as Group A winners.

Switzerland: A draw or a victory.

Finland: Only a victory will suffice.

Iceland: Eliminated and confirmed in last place in the group.

Standings & fixtures in Group A

Pos.		P	W	L	GD	PTS	Form
1	Norway	2	2	0	2	6	WW
2	Switzerland	2	1	1	1	3	LW
3	Finland	2	1	1	0	3	WL
4	Iceland	2	0	2	-3	0	LL

Thursday 10th July 2025

Finland vs Switzerland (8pm, Geneva)
Norway vs Iceland (8pm, Thun)

Group B: Portugal hanging on with Spain already through

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Spain‘s emphatic victory over Belgium ensured their passage to the quarter final but it did not confirm La Roja in top spot. Italy have the opportunity to spoil the Spanish party with victory over the Spanish at Wankdorf Stadium on Friday night. Only victory for Italy would deny the Spanish top spot in the group and provide the Italians with that pleasure. Italy have not qualified just yet themselves, but a point against the World Champions or more would ensure their safe passage to the knockouts.

Should Portugal beat Belgium and Italy lose to Spain, the Portuguese have a chance. A six goal swing in Portugal’s favour with Portugal scoring at least two more goals than Italy on the day, would be enough to see them displace Italy in second place in the group. Sadly the draw between Portugal and Italy already confirmed Belgium’s exit from the competition.

What does each team need in Group B?

Spain: Already through, avoid defeat against Italy to top the group.

Italy: Avoid defeat to ensure qualification, though a Belgium victory would ensure qualification regardless. Beat Spain to top the group.

Portugal: Beat Belgium scoring at least two more goals than Italy and hope Spain beat Italy with a six goal swing over the two matches in Portugal’s favour required.

Belgium: Already eliminated, the Red Flames can still finish third with victory over Portugal to avoid the ignominy of earning the group’s wooden spoon.

Standings & fixtures in Group B

Pos.		P	W	D	L	GD	PTS	Form
1	Spain	2	2	0	0	9	6	WW
2	Italy	2	1	1	0	1	4	WD
3	Portugal	2	0	1	1	-5	1	LD
4	Belgium	2	0	0	2	-5	0	LL

Friday 11th July 2025

Italy vs Spain (8pm, Bern)
Portugal vs Belgium (8pm, Sion)

Group C: Germany and Sweden’s race to the summit

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Germany and Sweden both confirmed their places in the quarter finals in the previous match day at the expense of both Poland and Denmark. The two giants of women’s football sit at third and sixth in the FIFA World Rankings and will meet at Stadion Letzigrund on Saturday night.

Sweden know that a draw will be enough for them to top the group while only a victory will do for Germany due to Sweden’s superior goal difference. Interestingly if Poland had scored on Tuesday night and lost 3-1 to Sweden the top two would have been on identical records. That would have meant that should the match have ended in a draw on Saturday, a penalty shoot out would have decided who topped the group. Sadly we have been denied that gloriously chaotic possibility.

Poland and Denmark play at the same time with both looking to finish third in the group. Poland will also be hoping to score their first major tournament goal after coming agonizingly close in both matches so far.

What does each team need in Group C?

Sweden: Already through avoiding defeat will ensure they top the group.

Germany: Already through, only victory will see them top the group.

Denmark: Already eliminated, avoiding defeat would see them finish third in the group.

Poland: Already eliminated, only victory against Denmark would see them finish third in the group.

Standings & fixtures in Group C

Pos.		P	W	L	GD	PTS	Form
1	Sweden	2	2	0	4	6	WW
2	Germany	2	2	0	3	6	WW
3	Denmark	2	0	2	-2	0	LL
4	Poland	2	0	2	-5	0	LL

Saturday 12th July

Sweden vs Germany (8pm, Zurich)
Poland vs Denmark (8pm, Luzern)

Group D: France, Netherlands, England and Wales all in with a shout

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Group D, dubbed the group of death by the media, is ironically the only group where all four teams are still alive going into the final match day. France, who recorded their second victory of the competition against Wales yesterday will confirm a place in the quarter finals by avoiding a loss by three goals or more to Netherlands on the final match day. They will also top the group by avoiding defeat.

Only a 3-0 victory over France in the final match will give Netherlands hope of progression should England defeat Wales. If England draw with Wales a victory by any margin would see the Dutch through. And if England should lose to Wales then a draw would suffice for the Dutch.

England themselves on the other hand know that victory against Wales will be enough to make the quarter finals. A draw would be enough if Netherlands fail to beat France. Finally, Wales must now beat England 4-0 and hope that France beat Netherlands to secure a place in the next round. Just in case that did not already feel like a daunting task, Wales have never beaten England in a competitive fixture.

What does each team need in Group D?

France: Avoiding defeat will secure top spot, can qualify with defeat so long as it is not by three goals or more, or if England fail to beat Wales.

England: A victory will secure their spot in the quarter final, if Netherlands defeat France they can still top the group. A draw will put England through as runners up should Netherlands fail to beat France.

Netherlands: A victory by three goals or more will assure their passage to the next round. They could qualify with a victory by less than that should England fail to beat Wales or they can qualify with a draw if England lose to Wales.

Wales: Wales can only make the next round if they defeat England 4-0 and the Netherlands lose to France.