England and Spain will battle it out in the final of EURO 2025 tomorrow evening, but who will walk away with the crown?
And so, after 25 days of goals, excitement, heartbreak and joy, 16 teams from across the continent have been whittled down to just two. Just as it was in the World Cup two years ago, England and Spain will fight it out on Sunday for the honour of the best footballing nation in Europe.
It should come as little shock to see the Lionesses take on La Roja, after all, this will be the fourth Euros in a row that the two sides have met. Spain claimed the bragging rights in 2013 with a 3-2 win, but England have won their last two Euro confrontations, most recently in 2022, when Georgia Stanway’s extra time screamer capped a dramatic turnaround at the AMEX Stadium, allowing them to progress to the semi-finals.
In the intervening years, results would suggest that Spain now have the upper hand in this fight. They won their rematch in the World Cup final 1-0, thanks to Olga Carmona’s strike, a match they dominated throughout and should have led by more. In the Nations League, England scraped a 1-0 win at Wembley thanks to Jess Park’s bundled effort, but Spain played them off the park in Barcelona, with Claudia Pina’s brace off the bench giving them a deserved 2-1 victory, a win that saw them top the group at the expense of England.
Perfect Spain look set to win again
Their trajectories in Switzerland postulates that little has changed. Spain have been a ruthless, unrelenting winning machine, barely putting a foot wrong, a hot form run to the final not too dissimilar to what England enjoyed three years ago. Portugal’s tepid resistance was brutally torn apart on their opening night. Belgium were brave and bold, but there was no chance of them matching Spain’s attacking might for the whole 90 minutes.
However, as rounds have progressed and bigger tests have emerged, the faintest of fault-lines have begun to emerge. The goals, which flowed so freely at the start and allowing Esther Gonzalez to race into the lead for the Golden Boot, have begun to dry up. Switzerland, passionately backed by the support of the nation, were able to keep the World Champions at bay for over an hour before succumbing. Germany went one better, their defensive resolve, in spite of their well-documented squad deficiencies, was able to take the game past 90 minutes and onto the cusp of penalties. In both games, it took a moment of Bonmati brilliance to win the game for Spain.
It is a cliché that to win when not at your best is a sign of champions, but with players like Alexia Putellas, Mariona Caldentey, Claudia Pina and Aitana Bonmatí, Spain have the individual talent to flip a game within seconds, finding that pass that no-one else can see, or scoring the goal that no-one else could execute.
England’s mix of fortune and finishers brings them to Basel
That being said, if that cliché holds true, then it will be England who lift the trophy at St. Jakob-Park. For as much have Spain have delighted and impressed, England have not. Their opening defeat against France, Sarina’s first in a European Championship, highlighted a team that was not ready for the battles to come. A defensive mess of square pegs in round holes saw Les Bleus storm to a 2-0 lead in the first half. It was a lead they should have extended further before Keira Walsh’s late consolation briefly opened the door for the unlikeliest of comebacks.
This set the tone for what was to come, as England persisted with their slow starts and continued to gift their opponents the early advantage. Against Sweden and Italy, England found themselves with their backs to the wall with 20 minutes to go. Only after Sarina emptied the bench of all her forwards were England able to turn both matches around. The ‘finishers’ of Chloe Kelly and Michelle Agyemang, England’s comeback queens, were instrumental in leading the heroics that saw Sweden beaten on penalties and the Italians knocked out in extra time.
England have shown the fight and resolve they exhibited in Australia to get to the final, but they have also been blessed with luck. Their must-win match against the Netherlands descended into farce as Oranje put up one of their most abject performances in recent memory, gifting them a 4-0 win that got their campaign back on track. Against Sweden, they found themselves match point down twice in the shootout, only for Jennifer Falk and Sofia Jakobsson to miss their winning kicks. And against Italy, they were gifted a penalty that they needed two bites of the cherry to convert to win the match in the 119th minute.
Will the Lionesses cross the line?
‘I’d rather have lucky generals than good ones’ is a quote usually attributed to Napoleon, and with England, you can see their worth. For all the criticism Wiegman has received, from her overly consistent first team picks to the timings of her substitutions, she has got England, either by luck or by a managerial masterclass, to a major tournament final not once, not twice, but thrice. Combined with her tenure with the Netherlands, and this will be her fifth major final appearance in a row.
England are now making it to tournament finals in a manner that defies the logic of their performances, compared to before when luck seemed to be working against them (see Laura Bassett’s own goal and Steph Houghton’s missed penalty). Whatever Wiegman’s processes are, whoever it is she picks to start the match, however late her subs may appear to be, the undeniable fact is that it works. It is what has got England this far and could be what gets them over the line again.
The midfield battle
Under Wiegman, the Walsh- Stanway partnership has become the primary fulcrum of England’s midfield, and a key component in their Euro 2022 success. Three years later and Wiegman has shown little appetite to deviate from it, despite the options available to her, and the struggles England’s midfield have suffered in the tournament so far. Stanway has not looked match fit after being rushed back from injury, whilst Walsh is now the beacon for opposition players for target. Walsh’s midfield talents are well documented, as is the knowledge that by taking her out of the game, England’s passing game collapses completely.
At the last Euros, Spain were able to do this to great effect, pushing England to the brink of a quarter final exit, until Ella Toone’s late intervention. In the World Cup Final, they were able to nullify her completely. If England are to win, they will need to create the space for Walsh to operate in effectively, not an easy task when the opposition can boast arguably the best three midfielders in the world in Bonamti, Putellas and Patri Guijarro. Walsh’s assist for Toone in the Euro 2022 Final shows what she is capable of if she is given the stage to perform upon, if Spain can remove that keystone from the game, England’s hopes will all but certainly collapse with it.
The defensive line
If there is one chink in Spain’s armour, it could well be their high defensive line. Against Belgium, Hannah Eurlings was able to beat the offside line to run clean through to score their second equaliser. The Italians were able to take this one step further, with Sofia Cantore pace continuously exploiting the space left behind by stand in left back Leila Ouahabi when she joined the attack. Whilst both sides were able to score from this, neither had the defensive strength to withstand the ferocious onslaught of Spain’s attacking excellence. Germany, however, did, and through Jule Brand and Klara Bühl had the pace in attack, although not the finishing touch, to unsettle Irene Paredes and María Méndez.
However, these same weaknesses are also prevalent in England’s rearguard. Millie Bright and Leah Williamson were the bedrock upon which Euro 2022 was won. However, due to injuries, Wiegman has rarely been able to call upon that partnership again and has struggled to forge a replacement. Esme Morgan was the third defender to be paired with Williamson in this tournament when she started against Italy in their Semi Final, with Jess Carter and Alex Greenwood both failing to impress. Carter’s nightmare first half against Sweden has almost certainly condemned her to the role of a defensive “closer”, but England did not look rock solid by her replacement either. The Lionesses have kept only one clean sheet all tournament, against a Dutch side that never came close to landing a glove on them.
The full-backs
One avenue Spain know they will get joy from is England’s fullbacks. Their 2023 World Cup Final win came when Lucy Bronze was isolated on the halfway line, and their rapid transition allowed them to exploit the space she had vacated, leading to Olga Carmona’s winner. Against France, Bronze and Carter suffered against the pace and power of Sandy Baltimore and Delphine Cascarino.
Greenwood has since moved to left back, but even she was outmuscled far too easily in the build-up to Barbara Bonansea’s opener for Italy. With Bronze’s potent attacking threat leaving space behind, and England’s remaining three defenders far from cohesive, top scorer Esther González, along with Clàudia Pina and Mariona Caldentey, will be relishing the prospect of a slaughter, providing they can rediscover the attacking flair that faded since the tournament started.
The finishers
If there is one ace England can boast over Spain, it is their finishers. England should already be home by now, the reason they are in Basel and not Britain is because of Chloe Kelly and Michelle Agyemang. At Euro 2022, it was Alessia Russo and Ella Toone who were the key difference makers. Now, that mantle has passed to Kelly and Agyemang. The manner in which they have changed the game in the little time they have been afforded has been nothing short of incredible.
Agyemang has become Wiegman’s joker in the pack, and with her pace, strength, chaos and finishing under the greatest of pressures, she has impacted every game she has been thrown on to save. If England are still in touch with 20 minutes to go, there can be no doubt that Wiegman will be turning to the 19 year old to save the game one final time.
You can read all of the latest news, analysis and opinion at Euro 2025 on The Halfway Line.
