The race to make it to Oslo is heating up. After Wednesday night the picture will be that much clearer and the UWCL knockout phase participants will be confirmed.
Like on every match day this term there are some exciting ties with Wolfsburg vs Chelsea the pick of the bunch this time. Four teams will confirm their place in the quarter finals and another eight will head to the play offs with one eliminated on Wednesday night.
Ahead of the conclusion of the very first league phase in the UEFA Women’s Champions League, The Halfway Line takes you through all the implications and permutations of the final day.
The League phase as it stands
| Pos | Team | GD | Pts |
| 1. | Barcelona | +15 | 13 |
| 2. | Lyon | +9 | 13 |
| 3. | Chelsea | +16 | 11 |
| 4. | Juventus | +6 | 10 |
| 5. | Real Madrid | +6 | 10 |
| 6. | Bayern Munich | -3 | 10 |
| 7. | VfL Wolfsburg | +4 | 9 |
| 8. | Arsenal | +2 | 9 |
| 9. | Manchester United | -3 | 9 |
| 10. | Paris FC | -1 | 8 |
| 11. | Atlético Madrid | +8 | 7 |
| 12. | OH Leuven | -2 | 6 |
| 13. | Vålerenga | -2 | 4 |
| 14. | Twente | -6 | 2 |
| 15. | Benfica | -7 | 1 |
| 16. | PSG | -8 | 1 |
| 17. | Roma | -15 | 1 |
| 18. | St. Pölten | -20 | 1 |
State of play
Ten of the twelve sides that will advance in the competition are through to at least the play off round, they are:
Barcelona, OL Lyonnes, Chelsea, Juventus, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Vfl Wolfsburg, Arsenal, Manchester United and Paris FC.
Three other sides remain in contention for the two remaining spots, they are:
Atlético Madrid, OH Leuven and Vålerenga.
And five sides have already been eliminated ahead of the final match day, they are:
FC Twente, Benfica, PSG, Roma and St. Pölten.
There remains jeopardy for each side in the top 13 and we’ll break down why below.
Final day fixtures
All fixtures will kick off concurrently at 8pm GMT on Wednesday 17th December and will be available to watch on Disney + in the UK.
OL Lyonnes vs Atlético Madrid
Wolfsburg vs Chelsea
Juventus vs Manchester United
Twente vs Real Madrid
Bayern Munich vs Vålerenga
Paris FC vs Barcelona
OH Leuven vs Arsenal
Roma vs St. Pölten
Benfica vs PSG
UWCL Quarter finalists (1-4)
In UEFA’s shiny new league phase, the top four teams qualify directly for the quarter finals and skip the play off round entirely.
Only an extremely unlikely set of events could see Barcelona drop out of the top four on Wednesday. Even in an unlikely defeat, Barca’s goal difference is so superior to most in the league phase they are almost certain to remain in the top four. A similarly unlikely set of events could see OL Lyonnes drop out too. Lyon’s goal difference being closer to that of the chasing pack rather than Barcelona makes their position a touch more precarious than that of the Catalan giants.
Chelsea are in a good position, their goal difference is the best in the UWCL but their draw with Twente on match day one means their ability to finish top is out of their hands. If either Barcelona or OL Lyonnes win, that will be all she wrote for Chelsea’s hopes of topping the tree at Christmas. Chelsea are far from guaranteed a place in the top four. If Chelsea draw against Wolfsburg they will need a favour from two of FC Twente, Vålerenga or Manchester United to stay in the top four. However victory against Wolfsburg on the night will be enough to put the Blues place in the top four beyond doubt.
Real Madrid face Twente, a side they beat home and away in the UWCL last term. If they are able to secure a comfortable victory on the day they are extremely likely to make the top four. However if Juventus can match their margin of victory when they welcome Manchester United, they will finish above Real. Juventus are up against history as well as Manchester United, Juve have never beaten an English club in nine attempts. Bayern Munich’s heavy defeat to Barcelona has taken its toll on their chances. Only if two of Wolfsburg, Manchester United or Twente avoid defeat, coupled with a victory of Bayern’s own would see them sneak into the top four.
There is difficulty afoot for each of the chasing pack in Wolfsburg, Arsenal and Manchester United. Even if they are able to win on the night there is no combination of results that sees them enter the top four should Bayern beat Vålerenga and Real Madrid beat FC Twente. Wolfsburg, Arsenal or Manchester United can only enter the top four with victory on the night coupled with defeat for either Bayern or Real. In that event, if all three were to win they would all finish on 12 points meaning goal difference would become vital in in separating them. Wolfsburg are currently sitting two goals better off than Arsenal with United five goals further back.
It is seemingly incongruous but a Wolfsburg victory is vital to Arsenal and Manchester United’s chances of a top four finish. Any positive result for Chelsea would see the Blues finish ahead of the other two English clubs and take the last spot in the top four.
The less immediately clear advantage of finishing in the top four is that you cannot meet another member of the top four until at least the semi final. Added to that, should you finish first or second you will be kept apart from the other side joining you in the top two until the final. That is a huge bonus for certain sides that may favour a one off match rather than a game over two legs. Chelsea could avoid their almost inevitable fate of facing Barcelona in a semi final in this way so there remains plenty on the line.
Extremely likely: Barcelona, OL Lyonnes
Contenders: Chelsea, Real Madrid, Juventus, Bayern Munich
Unlikely but still possible: Wolfsburg, Arsenal, Manchester United
UWCL Seeded play off spots (5-8)
Each team currently in the top twelve could theoretically still make a seeded spot in the league phase. Chelsea, Real Madrid, Juventus and Bayern Munich each have a realistic chance of making the UWCL top four but any slip up for those four could be costly. Victory for Arsenal will ensure them at least a seeded play off spot. A draw would likely do the same but would leave them relying on victories for at least two of Chelsea, Juventus and OL Lyonnes.
Wolfsburg will also guarantee themselves a spot in the top eight with victory and if either Bayern or Real Madrid slip up they may yet slip into the top four. However the She Wolves have perhaps the hardest tie of any of these sides at home to a Chelsea side that has scored nine goals in their last two matches.
To stand any chance of making the top eight Manchester United need to beat Juventus. If they can topple the Italian champions they will guarantee a seeded play off spot. They could sneak in with a draw, but they would need victory from OL Lyonnes and Chelsea with Barcelona at least avoiding defeat. Failing that, only victories from underdogs OH Leuven and Vålerenga could come to their rescue for a seeded spot.
It is a similar story for Paris FC but only a victory against Barcelona gives them the slightest hope of a seeded spot in the UWCL play off draw. Atlético Madrid will know that even victory away to OL Lyonnes would not guarantee them a seeded spot, but coupled with a Chelsea and Barcelona win, they will be seeded. Only victory by a three goal margin for OH Leuven coupled with defeats for Manchester United, Paris FC and Atlético Madrid [or if one of those teams won or drew, a three goal defeat for Wolfsburg] would see Leuven seeded. Don’t hold your breath Leuven fans.
Guaranteed at least the top eight: Barcelona, OL Lyonnes and Chelsea
Likely to be seeded in a play off: Real Madrid, Juventus, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Wolfsburg
Unlikely to be seeded but still possible: Manchester United, Atlético Madrid, Paris FC and OH Leuven
UWCL Unseeded play off spots (9-12)
For the final unseeded play off spots, much hinges on Vålerenga. Only victory for the Norwegians could change those who progress in the top twelve. The champions of Norway face an uphill battle as they travel to Munich to face Bayern, who themselves are hunting a spot in the top four. The two sides were in a group together last term, and though Bayern won 3-0 in this fixture last year, Vålerenga did nab a draw at home to the German giants.
Atlético Madrid are almost certainly confirmed in the top twelve, they are three points ahead of Vålerenga with a +10 goal difference buffer. OH Leuven will guarantee their place in the next round with victory over Arsenal. If Vålerenga do manage to beat Bayern Munich, however Leuven will have to beat Arsenal to qualify for the next round of the UWCL.
Almost certainly qualified: Atlético Madrid
Work to do: OH Leuven
Need a miracle: Vålerenga
