Already just one game remains for each team in the group phase of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. Once complete, four nations will be eliminated, and eight will progress to the quarter final stages in the search for gold.

The novelty of the Olympic format is that before a ball is kicked tomorrow, no team is yet mathematically out of the competition, even if some already have one foot out the door. It has been an entertaining group stage so far, with swashbuckling attack favoured over cautious conservative approaches. The tournament is yet to encounter its first draw, but expect that to change tomorrow with some armed with the knowledge that a draw will keep their hopes of progression alive. We break down the state of play in each group and what each nation’s chances are of advancing in Paris, below.

Group A

In a group stage where three teams advance from each group, two wins from two will always be enough to find yourself in the Quarter finals- that is unless you are embroiled in a spying scandal. As is the case for Canada.

The reigning Olympic champions sit third in their group despite winning their first two matches on zero points after receiving a six point deduction. Canada were penalised by FIFA  this week, a verdict that Canada have now contested. The Canada Olympic Committee appealed to the International Court of Arbitration for Sport against their six point deduction and subsequent fine, with a verdict expected at some point on Tuesday. Yet amazingly even with the deduction, should their appeal fall on deaf ears, Canada will go into their final group game against Colombia knowing that a win will be enough to put them into the knockout round. Their late victory against France was nothing short of a herculean effort.

Colombia on the other hand sit top of the group, and a draw would be enough for them, and even in defeat they would have a chance of advancing, given their positive goal difference and the chance of them progressing as a best third place finisher.

Colombia will be boosted by the return of one of their star players in the form of Mayra Ramírez, who has now served her one game ban from a red card offence gathered in the opening fixture with France.

France are in the same boat as their Colombian counterparts, facing New Zealand in their final group game the hosts will hope that victory will be enough for them to top the group and ensure a Quarter final against a third placed side.

New Zealand can still make the Quarter finals but a win against France by at as many as three goals may be required to put them into the next round.

What they need to stand a chance:

Colombia: Avoid defeat, can draw

France: Avoid defeat, can draw

Canada: Must win

New Zealand: Win, and by more than three goals

Group B

There is no such drama for Emma Hayes’ USA side who are through to the Quarter finals with a game to spare. Expect heavy rotation from Hayes against Australia.

The Matildas come off the back of an energy sapping last-gasp victory over Zambia which has put them in a good place to qualify. Avoiding defeat to the USA will be enough to see them through. Though if the Aussies do see loss, but Canada and New Zealand fail to win by their necessary margins in Group A, the Matildas will still qualify as one of the two best third-place sides.

Germany face Zambia on the final match day after being hammered by a dominant USA side 4-1 on match day two. Die Nationalelf will hope to recoup some confidence against Zambia in Saint-Éttiene where a draw will secure their passage to the Quarter finals. However, Alexandra Popp’s Germany charges should take the threat of Zambia lightly at their own peril.

Australia were lucky to escape with all three points after being overwhelmed by the Copper Queen’s attack and falling 5-2 down before regrouping to win 6-5 in the final stages. Germany will wince at the memory of their 3-2 defeat at home to Zambia in a pre World Cup friendly which was a precursor to their worst FIFAWomen’s World Cup performance ever and group stage exit. They will use that match as motivation to demonstrate just how far they have come since then. Like many of the third place hopefuls who are looking up at third place rather than down, Zambia will need to win and likely win big while also hoping results go their way elsewhere. The Copper Queens have demonstrated they have no issues scoring goals, they just need to stop conceding so many.

What they need to stand a chance:

USA: Quarter final secured

Germany: Avoid defeat, can draw

Australia: Avoid defeat, can draw

Zambia: Win and win big

Group C

Like the USA, Spain are planning their trip to the Quarter finals already with Brazil awaiting them in their final group game. Marta’s Brazil know that a draw against the world champions will be enough to book safe passage into the Quarter finals, but would likewise be more than either of Spain’s opponents have managed thus far.

However, Brazilian’s will take heart from the fact that earlier this month Spain played Czechia in a dead rubber match for La Roja but vital for their opposition as Czechia secured a famous win against Montserrat Tomé’s side.

Japan and Nigeria face each other in the other match in group C, Japan will advance with a draw while only a win will do for Nigeria, depending on results elsewhere a win could do it for the Super Falcons but padding the goal difference will be necessary if they are to make absolutely sure. 

What they need to stand a chance:

Spain: Quarter final secured

Japan: Avoid defeat

Brazil: Avoid defeat

Nigeria: Only a win will do